To ring in the new year, Tone Vays, a former institutional investor turned Bitcoin (BTC) diehard, brought on Princeton graduate Murad Mahmudov, a leading cryptocurrency analyst and economist, to discuss the current state of this nascent market. As the debate/friendly discussion was over 130 minutes long, there was a mass of intriguing information contained in this episode of On The Record. But as made apparent in a pseudo-transcript compiled by Twitter user “Astatine,” the two prominent crypto traders made it clear that they still see a strong future for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Hasn’t Bottomed Just Yet
Since Bitcoin began to capitulate in late-2017, as investors pulled out of the crypto industry en-masse, long-term believers and value investors have sought to time the bottom. Yet, over one year later, after BTC lost 80% of its all-time high value, common Joe investors still can’t clearly discern of cryptocurrencies have found a floor to stand on. Yet, Vays and Mahmudov aimed to answer this pressing question, which has plagued the waking hours of crypto’s most astute investors for months on end.
Mahmudov claimed that BTC is still in the process of finding a long-term foothold, explaining that the world’s first cryptocurrency is most likely to bottom with the $1,800 to $2,400 range. For some perspective, a $2,000 price level will require the Bitcoin price to drop an additional ~50% from current prices — not the end of the world, but a dismal move nonetheless. Explaining this short-term bearish call, the trader noted that while he’s 100% sure BTC won’t fall under $1,000, arguably the most pertinent psychological support level, the true bottom isn’t in.
Mahmudov, who hinted at his intent to launch a crypto-centric hedge fund in the near future, noted that a number of altcoins, like Ether (ETH), EOS, XRP, among others, are still drastically overvalued, especially considering their often misconstrued value propositions.
Interestingly, Mahmudov’s bottom call didn’t line up Vays’, nor forecasts touted by his fellow, well-respected crypto traders. Vays, for instance, said that there’s a 30% chance that BTC has bottomed, before adding that there’s a 40% chance BTC could fall to as low as $1,000 to bottom.
Per previous reports from NewsBTC, Filb Filb, a long-term Bitcoin permabull and one of Mahmudov’s analyst peers, revealed that according to historical market trends and cycles, Bitcoin could floor anywhere between $2,500 and $3,100 from now until early-2020. Anthony Pompliano, the founder of Morgan Creek Digital Assets, also claimed that BTC could easily fall below $3,000, especially as the chance remains that the VanEck-backed Bitcoin exchange-traded fund could get denied by America’s regulatory incumbents.
And while analysts’ forecasts are varied, a theme common in all their predictions is that BTC likely has further to fall.
What’s Going For Bitcoin Moving Forward?
However, while Mahmudov is nearly certain that this market’s bottom is still to come, the analyst made it clear that over a long-term timeframe, he’s extremely bullish on Bitcoin, along with its potential to revolutionize global finance. Mahmudov claimed that he’s so bullish, that he wouldn’t spend the cryptocurrency for at least ten years, as the asset’s potential upside and asymmetric risk profile makes it nonsensical to use BTC at current rates.
Explaining why he’s a “HODLer of last resort,” as the crypto community likes to call the most dedicated Bitcoin investors, the analyst noted that BTC’s fixed supply issuance schedule is the catalyst that will beckon in billions of U.S. dollars over time.
In fact, he claimed that based on his models, which considers up to twenty fundamental factors, including supply, there will be a far bigger bubble in 2023 compared to late-2017’s. Mahmudov noted that 2017’s bubble will be so relatively small that it can be likened to the Dotcom industry in 1994, rather than the 2002/2003 bubble that doomsayers have been touting. The analyst’s fundamental factors, coupled with the fact that there’s over $17 trillion worth of equity worldwide, along with over $100 trillion worth of all forms of money and value stores (SoV), made it clear that Bitcoin has likely got more than enough room to run.
Lou Kerner, the founding partner at Crypto Oracle, echoed the money and SoV catalyst in a recent interview, as reported by NewsBTC previously. Kerner simply stated that fiat currencies are a Ponzi scheme, before stating that BTC could surmount the $100,000 price point, specifically due to its ability to allow consumers to easily derisk their portfolios drastically. And in a brewing financial crisis like today, Bitcoin’s value proposition will only become even more apparent.
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